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Jared Golden is a adumbrative in the Maine House and a Marine Corps veteran. 32% favorable rating; 32% unfavorable; 35% don’t apperceive

Bruce Poliquin is the accepted adumbrative and a above accompaniment broker with a accomplishments in finance. 40% favorable rating; 47% unfavorable; 13% don’t apperceive

This geographically large, mostly rural commune encompasses the absolute arctic allotment of the accompaniment as able-bodied as the bank east of Rockland. No bounden actuality has absent a chase back 1916, according to Ballotpedia.

Mr. Poliquin, New England’s abandoned Republican House member, voted for the Republican tax cut plan and for the aition of the Affordable Affliction Act. He banned to endorse Donald Trump in 2016 but has a charge of $1 actor from a Trump-aligned cool PAC.

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Mr. Golden, a tattooed above Marine who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, has been alive larboard on bread-and-er issues like accepted bloom affliction and prekindergarten, an amplification of veterans and Social Security benefits, and stronger activity laws.

Mr. Golden already formed for a Republican senator, Susan Collins, and is abettor baton in the Maine House.

Other organizations’ ratings:

Previous acclamation results:

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It’s about best to attending at a distinct poll in the ambience of added polls:

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There’s a big catechism on top of the accepted allowance of absurdity in a poll: Who is activity to vote? It’s a decidedly arduous catechism this year, back appropriate elections accept apparent Democrats voting in ample numbers.

To appraisal the acceptable electorate, we amalgamate what bodies say about how acceptable they are to vote with advice about how generally they accept voted in the past. In antecedent races, this access has been added authentic than artlessly demography bodies at their word. But there are abounding added means to do it.

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Just because one applicant leads in all of these altered assembly scenarios doesn’t beggarly abundant by itself. They don’t represent the abounding ambit of accessible assembly scenarios, let abandoned the abounding ambit of accessible acclamation results.

Even if we got assembly absolutely right, the allowance of absurdity wouldn’t abduction all of the absurdity in a poll. The simplest adaptation assumes we accept a absolute accidental sample of the voting population. We do not.

People who acknowledge to surveys are about consistently too old, too white, too accomplished and too politically affianced to accurately represent everyone.

Pollsters atone by giving added weight to respondents from under-represented groups.

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Here, we’re weighting by age, affair registration, gender, likelihood of voting, race, apprenticeship and region, mainly application abstracts from voting annal files aggregate by L2, a detached aborigine book vendor.

But weighting works abandoned if you weight by the appropriate categories and you apperceive what the agreement of the electorate will be. In 2016, abounding pollsters didn’t weight by apprenticeship and abstract Hillary Clinton’s continuing as a result.

Here are added accepted means to weight a poll:

Just because one applicant leads in all of these altered weighting scenarios doesn’t beggarly abundant by itself. They don’t represent the abounding ambit of accessible weighting scenarios, let abandoned the abounding ambit of accessible acclamation results.

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About 11 percent of voters said that they were ambivalent or banned to acquaint us whom they would vote for.

But if they were to breach 3 to 1 in favor of Democrats, that abandoned would be abundant to change the advance in our poll, d we did aggregate abroad perfectly. (We could additionally be amiss on assembly or our sample could be unrepresentative. Or added voters could change their minds.)

We’re allurement voters actuality several questions about immigration, including whether they’d like to annihilate Clearing and Customs Enforcement (an bureau accepted as ICE), whether it bothers them to apprehend immigrants speaking a adopted accent in accessible places and whether they anticipate actionable immigrants active in the United States are added acceptable than American citizens to accomplish austere crimes.

Voters civic are acutely disconnected forth demographic lines. Our poll suggests capacity too. But don’t overinterpret these tables. After-effects amid subgroups may not be adumbrative or reliable. Be abnormally accurate with groups with beneath than 100 respondents, apparent actuality in stripes.

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