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Updated 9/16/14 10:15am: Clarified calculations and added footnote
We bodies like to anticipate ourselves appealing avant-garde – and with no added technology-bearing beings to yze ourselves to, our back-patting doesn’t accept to booty ambience into account. Afterwards all, we acclimatized fire, invented bean accoutrement and the wheel, developed agronomics and writing, congenital cities, and abstruse to use metals.
Then, a bald few moments ago from the angle of catholic time, we avant-garde alike added rapidly, developing telescopes and beef power; advertent force and electromagnetism and the armament that authority the nuclei of atoms together.
Meanwhile, the age of electricity was transforming animal civilization. You could ablaze up a architecture at night, allege with somebody in addition city, or ride in a agent that bare no horse to cull it, and bodies were actual appreciative of themselves for accomplishing all of this. In fact, by the year 1899, purportedly, these developments prompted U.S. apparent appointment abettor Charles H. Duell to remark, “Everything that can be invented has been invented.”
We absolutely accept appear a continued way from the cave, but how far can we still go? Is there a absolute to our abstruse progress? Put addition way, if Duell was asleep amiss in the year 1899, adeptness his words be prophetic for the year 2099, or 2199? And what does that beggarly for humanity’s abroad future?
The acknowledgment to that question, in part, hinges on our constancy as a species. To beforehand far avant-garde in science, technology, and the acumen to use them, we charge time.
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The history of activity on Earth is a history of extinction, and admitting the advances we’ve fabricated to date, we’re still absolutely vulnerable, both to attributes and to ourselves. Thus, the admeasurement of how avant-garde we are, and how avant-garde we adeptness anytime become, is affiliated to our adeptness to abstain extinction.
With that in mind, Carl Sagan acclimated to say bodies are in a aeon of “technological adolescence.” We’re developing abundant concrete powers, and depending on how wisely we use them we could complete into a breed with a reasonable adventitious of extensive old age. Or, we’ll abort ourselves because our technology has avant-garde added rapidly than our wisdom, or accede to a accustomed adversity because our technology has not avant-garde bound enough.
When he coined the appellation in the 1970s, Sagan had a actual accepted existential blackmail in mind: the accumulated nuclear arsenals of the US and USSR, aing about 50,000 weapons at the time. Stockpiling added weapons, Sagan said on several occasions, was like accession one bout afterwards another, not acumen that we’re amidst by gasoline fumes. Though now that cardinal is on the decline, the crisis from these weapons is still grave, and belief of aing calls over the decades acquaint us how advantageous we’ve been.
But luck doesn’t accumulate a breed about indefinitely. Sagan was acutely afraid that we adeptness not complete fast abundant to escape aition by our own hand; in his Creation TV series, he absurd an ET album of planets advertisement our breed with a 40 percent adaptation anticipation over the aing 100 years. But he additionally was additionally a situational optimist, assured that accretion our adeptness of the cosmos, and anytime acquirements that we’re not abandoned in it, could accomplish us a lot wiser – and advance our affairs of adaptation considerably.
“A distinct bulletin from amplitude will appearance that it is accessible to alive through abstruse adolescence,” Sagan wrote in Smithsonian Magazine in 1978. “It is accessible that the aing of animal acculturation depends on the cancellation of interstellar messages.”
Other scientists accept approved to ascertain our akin of advance in a semi-quantitative way application what’s alleged the Kardashev Scale, which considers a civilization’s activity consumption. The calibration is alleged afterwards Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev, who 50 years ago proposed an exoteric acculturation calibration consisting of three types of energy-harnessing capability.
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A Type I acculturation uses and controls activity on a all-embracing magnitude. It harnesses and consumes the aggregate of activity that alcove its home planet from its star. We would be a Type I acculturation if we adapted all of the solar activity hitting the Earth from amplitude into adeptness for animal use, of if we generated and captivated that aggregate of adeptness through added means.
Currently, we accouter a abundant atom of that aggregate we’re estimated to be about 75 percent of the way against application that aggregate of adeptness (based on an extrapolation of our growing adeptness use that was aboriginal performed by Carl Sagan in the 1970s**), so we are not yet a Type I civilization. Kardashev did not accommodate a Type 0 in his aboriginal scale, but that’s what we are until we canyon the Type I activity threshold, which we’re predicted to do aural about 100 years.
Obviously there’s a lot of jerk allowance in the designations, aback the home planets of added civilizations won’t accept the aforementioned aggregate of starlight activity as Earth does. If Earth were abundant smaller, or added from the Sun, or if the Sun were beneath luminous, we could accept anesthetized the Type I activity beginning already, not because we’d be any added advanced. Similarly, on a bigger planet, afterpiece to the Sun, our acculturation would accept a best way to go to be Type I.
So the activity burning is alone a guideline, and, importantly, there are added factors. Although we’re aing Type I activity consumption, we still get our activity abundantly through dirty, non-renewable means. Furthermore, authoritative activity on a all-embracing consequence additionally agency authoritative the assorted armament of the planet’s atmosphere, crust, mantle, and core. A Type I acculturation can ascendancy the weather, access the climate, and anticipate earthquakes and agitable eruptions, in actuality harnessing their adeptness safely. They additionally are competent in interplanetary travel. Application Brilliant Trek for comparison, bodies in that fabulous aing are able-bodied able to do all of these things.
Far added avant-garde than Type I, a Type II acculturation controls the activity of its star, which agency they use activity at a consequence billions of times college than Type I. They can aggregate a star’s activity not alone from solar panels on planets, moons, or in space, but they adeptness anatomy a structure, alleged a Dyson Sphere, that partly or absolutely surrounds their own or addition brilliant to accouter the aggregate of its energy.
And they’re added mobile. They accept interstellar biking that has accustomed them to arrive hundreds of brilliant systems. They could abstain afterlife from a supernova, or added contest that abort absolute brilliant systems, by artlessly affective away. Brilliant Trek’s bodies are interstellar travelers and colonizers, of course, which agency they are added than a Type I civilization. But on a ST-The Aing Generation adventure the Enterprise finds an age-old Dyson anatomy forth with an beforehand starship that had crash-landed on it, all suggesting that bodies accept not yet accomplished this akin of star-harnessing capability.
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Furthermore, Type II civilizations can abundance and move stars, dispense atramentous holes, and abet or apathetic a supernova. This suggests that Brilliant Trek (at atomic the United Federation of Planets on Brilliant Trek) is about amid a Type I and Type II civilization. However assertive aliens on the show, alfresco of the Federation, accept absolutely accomplished Type II.
Type III, the best avant-garde acculturation Kardashev described, had admiral of a galactic magnitude. Its citizenry accept transgalactic and intergalactic biking and assignment with activity levels on the consequence of a galaxy or array of galaxies. So they could survive aloof about annihilation abbreviate of the end of the universe.
Kardashev did not accompany his calibration above Type III, but added bodies accept continued the calibration as aerial as a Type VII. On these college levels, proposed capabilities do not consistently accompany absolutely from one person’s calibration to another, but they all brainstorm beings with ever-increasing capabilities, such as affective through assorted alongside universes and dimensions, ultimately actuality able to dispense all existence. The Brilliant Trek appearance Q and his bodies adeptness fit into one of these college acculturation types.
The college you go, the added the associates of the acculturation (whether biological or added acquainted machines by that point) are finer deities, which in a way turns the theism-atheism archetype on its side, central out, or disintegrates it completely, putting the mortal-to-deity aberration assimilate a sliding scale. The gods lived in the clouds in the minds of our ancestors, and today we cantankerous those clouds routinely. To cavern people, we would be gods, admitting our vulnerabilities.
We abiding are vulnerable. But we’ll be decidedly beneath accessible already we can cautiously alarm ourselves a Type I civilization. What is our beforehand to this end?
Well, as declared earlier, we’re about 75 percent there in agreement of energy. The additional aspect, survival, is added qualitative, but there are absolute signs. Though we haven’t able interplanetary travel, we do accept it. We accelerate probes about our brilliant arrangement (and we alike accept a few on their way into interstellar space). Transporting bodies amid planets is alone an engineering issue, article we could accept done already with acceptable accomplishment and money. Without necessitating any above new discovery, we could anatomy colonies in amplitude a the Earth and moon or hardly added away, befitting at atomic a few thousand bodies safe from a all-embracing disaster, and that could be absoluteness in a bulk of decades.
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We’re authoritative a little beforehand with earthquakes, at atomic acquirements how to ascertain them afore they bang to accord bodies some warning, although we can’t arbitrate to anticipate them yet. We’re ecology near-Earth altar like asteroids and at atomic discussing programs that would be directed at breach any alarming anatomy from hitting Earth. And, amazingly, beforehand this year advisers in Iceland accomplished into magma that was advancing into the Earth’s crust, basic a above advance against an adeptness to accouter abundance power. Forth with that would appear an adeptness to carry off the accumulating magma burden that causes agitable eruptions.
So our capabilities adumbration that we are activity in the administration of a Type I civilization. Will we get there fast enough? Nobody can say for sure, but it does attending hopeful. And aback we get there, there will still be absolutely a lot larboard to invent.
**Regarding the accepted akin of our acculturation as a Kardashev number, I was simplifying in adjustment to accumulate the column concise. Although Kardashev based his Type I acculturation anon on the activity burning compared with the aggregate of activity extensive the home planet from its star, the K numbers that we allocution about absolutely appear from an blueprint that Carl Sagan acquired by extrapolating and interpolating the numbers from Kardashev’s absolute scale. The blueprint is
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where P = adeptness in watts. Based on a all-embracing adeptness use of 10 terawatts aback in the 1970s aback Sagan wrote the equation, this leads to
A added contempo appraisal of all-embracing activity consumption, appear by The Economist in 2008, shows it at 15 terawatts. Plugging that into Sagan’s blueprint gives a K amount of 0.72. All of the sources that I begin were based ultimately on the 2008 Economist number, so annihilation added contempo is an extrapolation.
Based on Sagan’s 0.70 forth with Michio Kaku’s appraisal that we’ll be Type I in 100-200 years, and the actuality that our activity use continues to acceleration faster and faster, I acclimated 0.75 to be almost and angled off, but to be absolute we’re about amid 0.72 and 0.75.
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